We are Moving Solely to Meet-up. No more posts on this blog.

Civilized Conversation continues, but as a Meet-up group only. DavidG will remain in charge, but with a smaller commitment of time.

  1. No more WordPress pre-mtg posts, with all the essays and a dozen links for each mtg.
  2. Instead, I will describe the topic idea in the Meet-up event announcement, and add 2-4 suggested reading links there on the Thursday or Friday before each mtg.
  3. Moderator role will rotate. David will do 2-3 mtgs each month. Other members will do 0-1 per month most months.
  4. Thanks so much to Nick for shouldering the workload during David’s absence, and to everybody for their patience.

Check our Meetup site from now on for future topics/events. This WordPress site will not have new posts BUT will still record all topics (e.g., see “Topics 2024” page, above). With over 1,000 substantive posts, it is also a good place for researching issues or discussion club topics if you are in another group.

Monday’s Mtg (5/1/23): Are we in a new “Age of Impunity” for rich and powerful elites?

A big thanks to Nick for hosting our Spring party on Sunday, April 30th. f you missed it, we might do something similar later this year, or we might organize some non-Monday restaurant dinners over the summer so we can socialize more. 

This topic grew out of a major speech delivered in 2020 by David Miliband, the head of the International Rescue Committee (what is that?).  The speech is here, and I linked to it and some commentaries on it below.  He said what people around the world has been saying more and more in recent years and is now quantitatively measured each year in a global “Atlas of Impunity.” Around the world political and corporate and sometimes other elites are increasingly able and willing to act corruptly, expecting with good reason that they are above the law.  Public accountability has been weakened or destroyed, and elite corruption and even mass violence go unpunished.  I would add that IMO elites – certainly in the USA – increasingly exude a sense of entitlement and moral superiority to the rest of us. 

I thought this would make a good topic for several reasons.  First, people here and abroad widely believe it’s true.  Economically, the USA is often said to be in a new Gilded Age.  Politically?  Well, Donald Trump’s presidency, our current Supreme Court, state govts like we discussed a few weeks ago, and the political control exercised by Big Finance and Big Tech sure have contributed to Age of Impunity beliefs.  But it is about more than that, as we will discuss.  Left and right usually define “out of touch elites” differently.  But that they exist, and float merrily above accountability is a belief common to both sides – and to less ideological regular people. 

Second, this alleged Age of Impunity is global in scope.  The speech noted this.  And to take just one example, the famous Panama Papers showed how unaccountable the world’s richest individuals are.  As for governments, we learn regularly in the news about their impunity in Russia, China, Hungary, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other places. 

Third, CivCon has talked often about many of the possible causes of elite impunity in recent years.  2023: The surveillance society created by and for corporations but used by many governments; undemocratic and unaccountable acts by red state Republican govts in FL, TX, TN, etc.  2022:  Cancel culture; our “lawless” (Justice Kagan’s word) Supreme Court parts I and II.  2021: Critical race theory; GOP voter suppression; nations that still have gulags.  2020:  How to rebuild U.S. democracy.  2019: How corrupt are U.S. politics/society?  Plus, Putin’s Ukraine war, Russian fascism, China’s tightening control over its people, Big Tech, Big Finance, and on and on. 

The last and most important reason for the topic, at least IMO, is this:  This new Age of Impunity was not inevitable.  In large part it was planned, or at least left to grow wild by complicit/indifferent political and corporate and news media leaders.   

To frame our mtg, I will give a brief opening on Monday that will try to –

  1. Define what is meant by Age of Impunity (and criticisms that it is overstated).
  2. Give a few big examples, focusing on the USA.
  3. List briefly factors that are often cited as main causes of growing impunity for elites, e.g., technological change; monopolized economy; the rise of authoritarianism; U.S. political decisions, esp. to weaken democracy; a changing world order.

Here are some ideas (always optional!) for background readings.  Some are lengthy so maybe try 1-2 of the recommended ones.

OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

A new global Age of Impunity?

The United States of Impunity?

What can be done?

NEXT WEEK (5/8/23):  What was the best decade of your life and why?   
                                        (A break from the heavy stuff)

Monday’s Mtg (4/17/23): Which major world religions are most likely to thrive in the 21st century?

After a lot of politics recently, let us switch to the future of religion.  Many scholars and analysts have tried to project how popular the major religious faiths will be worldwide and in the United States in 20 or 30 or 50 years.  Their numbers are interesting.  Most project Islam will catch up to Christianity in sheer numbers of adherents, and the other half dozen or so major faiths of today will still be here thriving in half a century. 

I don’t think the numbers are really what matter most.  For one, as the articles below explain, they are just projections, based on educated guesses about the extent to which current trends will continue.  They admit to big margins of error – especially because of the uncertain religious composition of China and a few other large countries.  Also, no one can credibly predict how thousands of faiths within some religions – notably Christianity – will fare.  History is even full of new faiths appearing seemingly out of nowhere and quickly becoming major faiths (Islam, Mormonism, American Methodism).  One broad idea is that new religions emerge or old ones rapidly evolve when the circumstances of a new age create a need for it.  Like Christianity’s meteoric rise from obscurity when the Mediterranean region needed a more universalizing faith for a more cosmopolitan, trade-driven, and migration-oriented age.  Or Buddhism’s rise as an alternative to Hinduism. 

What matters most IMO – and could make for an interesting Monday discussion – are the panoply of reasons why religions thrive and sink, and whether those big factors are changing in some fundamental ways in the 21st century.  The suggested readings below go over some of those major factors, and we can fill in our own guesses about other ones that might become pivotal.  Some of the readings are a bit long, so I will open our meeting by listing the major factors they discuss. 

We have strayed from the “civilized” part of our moniker several times recently, and that will stop.  Try me.  More pleasantly, please remember to sign up for our Spring outdoor burger bash at Nick’s house on April 30th. 

OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

NEXT WEEK (4/24/23):  No mtg.

Monday’s Mtg (4/10/23): What are Americans’ worst misconceptions about the rest of the world, and vice versa?

It is a holiday weekend, not a homework weekend.  For this topic on mutual misunderstandings between Americans and the rest of the world, let’s hope we can generate a lot of our discussion from group members’ direct experience.  We have immigrant members from many countries, people that have lived abroad, and a range of ages.  The latter is important because I do not want to get bogged down in 30–40-year-old stereotypes that newer generations have left behind.  (It is true that national/religious stereotypes often last for generations, but this is a well-rounded group so hopefully we have left in the past “all Americans are rich/arrogant” and “poor countries are hellholes,” “Arabs are violent” and other hackneyed beliefs.)

The vague wording hurts us, but not fatally, IMO.  Yes, there are 330 million Americans (225m adults), and asking what “we” believe about the rest of the world requires a lot of aggregating and generalizing.  The same is true the other way around.  The “rest of the world” is 200+ countries; thousands of cultures, ethnic groups, languages, etc.; a half dozen major religious faiths and hundreds of smaller ones; just to touch on the vast diversity of 7 billion non-Americans.  What do “we” and “they” think about each other, even at one snapshot moment in time, is not really a question with an answer.

Moreover, Americans themselves are sharply divided on core facts and beliefs about our own country, as we talked about last week.  Our country is in an internal Cold War over our history, culture, race, science, immigration’s value, the proper roles for govt/biz, and even the basic meaning of democracy and the Constitution.  As we discussed, regional sterotypes persist here.

What do “we” think about Islam and Mexico??  Many Americans are too saturated in myths and propaganda to know ourselves, much less others.   

Still, two very important reason led me to suggest this topic.

  1. Americans must be able to see ourselves as others see us – whether they are right or wrong about us.  Historically we do not do that very well, and catastrophes (for us and other countries) have followed.  If U.S. influence really is ebbing, seeing ourselves through 7 billion new sets of eyes will come to matter more and more. 
  2. There is always value in saying out loud our stereotypes and generalizations about others.  It helps us examine assumptions, facts, values, prejudices, etc.

Have a happy Easter weekend and I will see you on Monday.  Also, don’t forget to sign up for our spring party on April 30th at Nick’s house.

OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

About us –

By us –

NEXT WEEK (4/17/23):  How will major world religions evolve in 21st century?

CivCon’s Spring BBQ will be April 30th.

For more fun than that topic and Panera allow, go to our Meetup site to view and RSVP for a warm-weather-is-here-oh-please party that Nick will be hosting for Civilized Conversation at the end of this month. The party will be on Sunday April 30th, 3pm-6pm, at Nick’s house in the Mission Valley area.

It is open to all CivCon members, and you may bring a side dish and/or a guest, whichever you find most appealing and less trouble!

Monday’s Mtg (4/3/23): Do DeSantis’s Florida & other red state govts portend a radicalized Republican Party?

If you are not aware of what state-level Republican Party governments have been doing in the last two years – and especially in the last few months – you must be made aware.  In American politics, today’s state-level political parties are tomorrow’s national leaders and agendas.  State-level GOPs are radically changing American politics from the bottom up in the same way that President Trump and his allies in Congress seek to change it from the top. 

I am sorry.  At other times we have discussed the foibles and excesses of progressivism.  (e.g., cancel culture here & here & here; Is Democratic Party too far left here, feminism’s failures here.)  But a group with the name Civilized Conversation must speak openly and honestly about the disturbing evolution of the Party of Lincoln and Eisenhower.  Why?

First, state GOPs are implementing a truly radical agenda as we speak.  It really is happening and it has only begun.  This is not some liberal exaggeration of normal-level conservative policymaking.  As I will explain and the articles below make crystal clear, Republicans in many of the 22 states where they have unified control of the whole government (inc. AZ, FL, IA, MO, OH, TN, TX) have embarked on a full-blown and coordinated effort to use the power of government to enforce their culture war views on the rest of us.  The war so far has targeted education at all levels, public health (not just vax stuff), transgender and other LGBTQ rights, other civil rights, and even individual corporations that cross them.  They also are continuing the assault on voting rights and the efforts to control voting rules and the election process.

This is not anything like the conservatism we are used to or that is advertised.  It is not about small government, support for free enterprise, or advancing personal freedom (unless it is freedom to impose religious views on others).  MAGA priorities rule state Republican parties.

Okay – if this is all true, then why isn’t it more widely-known and debated?  Local press and specialized political websites have been covering these efforts as they happen.  But the befuddled and distracted national news media will not put it together for us.  As we have discussed several times, after more than a decade of creeping authoritarianism, the mainstream media still has no strategy for covering the Trumpian GOP. 

Now conservatives – or at least most of them – see things differently, of course.  To them, their representatives are just fighting back against progressive overreach.  Liberal culture warrior politicians, infected by “wokeness” and/or anti-white or anti-American POVs, went out and changed education curricula, forced LGBT propaganda on their kids in order to “groom” them (not a joke), and dared to restrict individual liberty during a plague.  They say it is all about restoring parental control over education, protecting children from immorality, preserving our true history, and fighting govt oppression of the coming white, conservative minority.  Over 60% of Republican voters still believe that President Biden stole the 2020 election from Trump with massive voter fraud, so most support voting “reforms,” as well..

For our meeting, I think it is enough just to become aware of what is happening in these red states and how it fits into the dividing of America.  Why the Right is choosing this path is where the controversy begins. With questions to debate like, who is in charge of the GOP now, and is choosing power over democracy (aka authoritarianism) just a passing phase for the GOP. 

IF YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT OUR COUNTRY’S FUTURE, YOU MUST FACE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, now dominated by its MAGA base, AS IT IS, not as you remember it or may want it to be.   IMO at least, conservatism is honorable and its tenets deserve respect, if it stands for something other than revenge and power to control others.

To open on Monday, I will list the main areas (edu, repro rights, LGBT, civil rights, voting) of this new state-level culture war and voting war.  I will emphasize changes that have become law already, and describe what more is planned that we know of.  Then we can debate.

If you want a head start on the facts, I highly recommend reading some of the recommended backgrounders. 

OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

The big picture –

Selected states –

A few special issues –   

Conservative POV –

NEXT WEEK (4/10/23):  What are Americans’ worst misconceptions about the rest of the word and vice versa?

Monday’s Mtg Part II: Nile’s paper on U.S. foreign aid to Egypt (excerpt)

Notes: See next post down for the usual pre-mtg background from DavidG. I removed the footnotes from Nile’s paper to make it easier to read. Sorry for the late notice.

Nile Regina El Wardani, MPH, MPhil, PhD
Short Excerpt
The Historical Role of Donors and the Price of Aid:
A Case Study of Agriculture & AID in Egypt


Over the past five decades, Egypt has been a major recipient of foreign aid from many
sources including the U.S., Western Europe, Japan and international financial organisations
such as the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (IBRD), the Soviet Union, Eastern European countries, China and many Arab
states. Largely because of the geo-political importance of Egypt to the West, and in line with
the Camp David Accord, Egypt remains the second largest recipient of USAID funds after
Israel.


US policy leverage, over the past three decades, has greatly influenced macroeconomic policy
in Egypt. Egypt’s path to a market-oriented economy following 40 years of heavy state
intervention in resource allocation has yielded significant positive macroeconomic results
according to the WB, IMF and USAID.2 Regional experts however often do not agree with
this analysis.


The literature on foreign aid suggests that there is a price to pay for aid (Payer 1991, Mitchell
1991, Zolo 1992, Chomsky 1989). Donor countries give aid to encourage certain policies in
recipient countries. This leads to the hypothesis that the source of foreign aid has an impact
on political and economic policies and reforms. Generally speaking, increased levels of aid
from the East (USSR, China) have led to higher levels of state intervention, while aid from
the West has resulted in less governmental involvement with a move towards privatisation, a
liberalised market, and policies that reflect a more market-driven capitalist economic
framework (Lofgren 1993). Bennett’s (1995) research on the role of government in adjusting
economies looked at the capacity to assume new roles in the health sector, suggesting a new
paradigm:


As a result of changing ideologies, donor pressure and fiscal constraints, many
countries since the 1980s have experienced reforms in the role of government. Neoliberal thinking, put into practice through stabilisation and structural adjustment programmes, has advocated a reduction in the size and functions of the state. The new conventional view is that the state should not directly provide service, unless market
failure makes direct provision necessary. Rather, the state should become an indirect
provider, adopting a role, which ensures that essential services are provided, but not
necessarily producing or delivering these services (Bennet 1995:1).

The purpose for such governmental reforms is to encourage diversity of service providers
through greater private sector participation, service deregulation, and by contracting out
services (Bennet 1995). The state should serve more as an enabler and regulator, rather than a
provider and financier of services. Reforms should encourage competition, managerial
responsibility, accountability, and consumer choice (USAID 2002). Focusing on reforms that
have been implemented in developing countries, Bennet (1995) attempts to identify capacities
and preconditions necessary for successful reform. He concludes that only where considerable
experience exists is it possible to understand the factors contributing towards success of a
particular reform. Unfortunately, many reform measures have been implemented with little or
no evaluation of past success or failure. As a result, many reform programmes executed under
development assistance do not produce the desired results (World Bank 2001).
This was the situation in the US-led Egyptian agricultural reforms of the 1980s. Mitchell’s
(1991) case study illustrates the failure of reforms that are not homegrown or well researched.
Much can be learned from this historical account that should be considered as HSR initiatives
take place in Egypt. Mitchell argues in America’s Egypt: Discourse of the Development
Industry that while millions of Egyptians benefited from the development work of USAID
and the World Bank, the price may not have been worth it.


For decades, USAID and WB have introduced reform measures in developing countries by
persuading willing elites in developing countries that American funds, technology, and
management-styles will be the solution. By looking at a reform case study that has
measurable results much can be learned. Although this study concerns agriculture (and not
health), the method of defining the problem and introducing American methods as a solution
is nearly the same as HSR. It is therefore useful to investigate this case further.


USAID and WB expertise and intelligence narrowly defined Egypt’s economic problems as
due primarily to overpopulation and substandard technology and management. Mitchell
(1991) argued that this narrow definition suited their development objectives. However,
Mitchell contends that the real problem was “powerlessness and social inequality,” issues that
the researcher will later argue are relevant to policymaking in HSR. This powerlessness and
inequality state Mitchell (1991), Ibrahim (1995) and Stork (1995), extends to all resources,
including land, water, health care, and political and social resources.


The agricultural reforms of 1980s focused on investing in US technology (to give higher
yields), US-style management (to become more efficient with the resources available), and
privatisation (for cash crops). These are the same foci of health sector reform today. USAID’s
powerful political stature – and its ability to find willing elites in Egypt who would summarily
benefit from rent-seeking as hundreds of millions of dollars were brought into the country –
made the reform possible.


USAID worked exclusively with political and economic elites (policymakers) making it easy
to form and implement US-style policy solutions without input from farmers or the
peasantry, a situation this researcher argues has repeated itself to some degree within HSR.
The outcome of the agricultural reform was higher production costs, instead of the promised
higher yields. Financial imbalances occurred and political, social and land equalities were
accentuated. Farmers were forced to spend more for technological advancements, while their
yield, and therefore income, declined. Agricultural reform initiatives were first financed by
grants from USAID but over the years this financing was transformed into WB loans signed
by the GOE, by then dependent on carrying out such reforms. This research shows that HSR
has begun to follow the same pattern. HSR initiatives in the early 1980s began with grant
funds from USAID. As the reform initiatives continued and dependency ensued, the GOE
signed loans to finance ongoing HSR initiatives.


This outcome within the agricultural sector created unforeseen problems. In order to repay
loans, USAID and WB encouraged the farming of cash crops. Increasingly less land was
devoted to growing staple foods for Egyptian consumption and more to exported cash crops
like cotton, which was volatile to international market changes, taxation and embargoes. Yet
the GOE, at the insistence (through loan conditionalities) of USAID and WB, continued to cut
subsidises for the growth of staple foods and encouraged subsidised farming of cotton and
livestock. Egypt now no longer produces enough staple foods to feed its people and is
dependent on wheat imports from the US. With the enormous growth in livestock farming,
Egypt now produces more food for livestock than for people. As a result of these USinitiated reform policies, Egypt became the world’s largest importer of US wheat (Mitchell
1991).


Ironically, tens of billions of dollars per year is spent by the US government to keep
American wheat farmers from planting, thus controlling the supply and driving up the
consumer price of wheat. At the same time, Egyptian wheat farmers are preventing from
receiving subsidies from the GOE.


Prior to these reforms, staple crop production had kept pace with needs of the growing
population, allowing Egypt to feed its people. During these reforms, livestock production
doubled that of staple food production in terms of farmed land. Today most of the US wheat
purchased by Egypt is bought on loans contributing to the external debt of Egypt. HSR has
taken a similar course. It was financed entirely by grants until 1997, when the MOHP signed
a loan with the WB in the amount of $200 million to pay for ongoing HSR initiatives.
USAID, a state agency, part of the US public sector, has identified as a main goal the cutting
back of the public sector in Egypt through privatisation, cutting of subsidies, and decreasing
the public sector work force. However, by its very presence within the Egyptian public sector,
Mitchell (1991) argues, USAID is strengthening the wealth, power, and resources of the state
and state elites. He argues that USAID is thus part of the problem it claims to want to
eradicate. Yet because the discourse of development must present itself as rational,
intelligent, and unbiased, USAID is not likely to diagnose itself as an integral aspect of the
problem.


Mitchell further argues that this difficulty reflects a much larger fallacy central to this thesis,
that of GG and the neo-liberal economic ideology, which advocates for expanding
privatisation throughout all sectors. The WB and USAID state that the problems of a country
like Egypt are in part due to a lack of GG and restrictions placed on the private sector, which
prohibit Egypt from competing in a globalised world-market. Perhaps the most significant
counter argument to this view is exemplified in the world grain market. One of the donor
arguments against Egypt producing the staple foods it needs is that it cannot compete in a
world market against the low grain prices of US farmers. Yet low US grain prices are a
product of US subsidies and market controls advantageous to the US. While the results of
HSR policies have yet to emerge, reforms in other sectors such as agriculture are illustrative
of what to avoid.


Donors, especially, USAID and the WB have played a significant role in Egypt since 1975
and continue today. Who has benefited from the policies being implemented is not always
clear. What is known is that almost every penny of the $15 billion budget for economic
assistance to Egypt from USAID (1974 to 1991) was allocated directly to US corporations (in
the US) for the purchase of US grains, US technology, US technical assistance, and other
American goods (Mitchell 1991). Still one must state that millions of Egyptians have
benefited from US economic assistance, at least in the short term. Benefits, whether short or
long term, have come at the price of dependence on American-style management, technology,
technical assistance, machinery, food imports, and enormous debt. The result is that vast US
government subsidies are provided to the so-called private sector in the US both directly by
the purchase of billions of dollars of products and technical expertise through USAID and
also indirectly by converting Egypt into a huge US market.


The role and influence of USAID goes beyond the economic realm. Today the US is the
largest supplier of Egyptian imports. This dependence and the ensuing levels of debt have
given the US a powerful position of influence within Egypt. With this strong foothold,
USAID conducts cabinet level dialogue with the GOE on macroeconomic and foreign policy.
This policy leverage has now become the principal criterion for which USAID development
projects in Egypt are evaluated Mitchell (1991), Makram-Ebeid (1989), Esposito (1996) and
Mernissi (1992).


(NOTE THIS IS AN EXCERPT AND NOT A FULL TEXT DOCUMENT

Monday’s Mtg (3/20/23): Who really benefits from U.S. foreign aid?

Our last topic in March is Nile’s idea.  Most of the commonly-heard criticisms and defenses of U.S. foreign aid are highly ideological and/or simplistic.  Why spend money on foreigners when people are hurting here?  Why spend so little on aid compared to defense spending – under $50B vs. over $800B, respectively?  Foreign aid makes countries dependent on charity, not self-reliance.  (I know, I know.  But there is a more sophisticated version of this claim than the “welfare hurts the poor” garbage it sounds like).  Too much of our aid is really given for strategic reasons, or not enough of it is.  Etc.

In fact, there are many spirited debates about foreign aid coming from within the global development community.  They do not tend to be anchored in ideology or stereotypes.  There are genuine concerns over whether donor nations have the right priorities, how well they coordinate their efforts, how much control recipient nations should have over the aid, and how effective aid programs are overall.  Some of the studies on effectiveness are disheartening. 

Nile brings up another important critique.  Unlike many other donor countries, almost all U.S. foreign aid is funneled through intermediary organizations.  They include corporations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) like universities and private charities, and faith-based and community groups.  Almost all of our aid gets funneled through a mere 75 organizations!  Only 6% of them are based in recipient countries, and only 4% of our aid goes directly to the national governments! 

Why do we do it this way?  I believe the official answer is that it makes our aid programs more efficient; easier to evaluate (better data are kept etc.); and less corrupt, especially in countries with very corrupt governments.  Nile and others ask whether it is more the other way around?  Does passing all our aid through American entities give them their “cut” at the expense of the global poor?  “Foreign aid helps American companies too” also makes it easier to sell to a skeptical U.S. public. 

I am agnostic on this one.  I do know that the U.S. Agency For International Development (USAID) is a notorious bureaucracy, but I also believe that most of its employees and contractors are trying to do the best job they can, given the strictures and circumstances they must operate under.

I will open our meeting Monday with a 5-minute summary of the ABCs of U.S. foreign aid.  I will then turn to Nile for her perspective.  I will also try to find out more about those 75 organizations that deliver the services/goods/monies and how they do it.  USAID and other big global aid agencies (like the World Bank), if they do nothing else, produce lots of internal evaluations.  Maybe sifting through some of them would help.

OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

Basic facts about U.S. Foreign Aid –

  • In words, from a center-right perspective: Amounts, goals, effectiveness, etc. 
    Or, see this interactive global map of where U.S. aid goes. [Note: A LOT of U.S. foreign military aid is not in here because of the way they define foreign aid. DavidG will explain]
  • FYI Summary – Total = about $48 billion, 35% is military/security aid.  (<1% of total budget.  DoD gets >$800B.).  Some U.S. aid goes to almost every nation but it is highly concentrated in 4-5 countries because of military assistance or strategic value.  There are 4 big objectives:  Peace and security, investing in people (edu, health), improving governance, promoting economic growth, humanitarian assistance.
  • Key for our discussionMost U.S. aid goes to intermediaries – almost always U.S. non-profits and companies. 

Does it work?

Nile’s Point – Does our aid mainly benefit U.S. orgs?

NEXT WEEK (March 27):  No Mtg.

Monday’s Mtg (3/13/23): The Surveillance Century, Part II – Government surveillance.

On February 6th we discussed the “Surveillance Century,”  We devoted all of the mtg to the almost purely private sector origins of our now omnipresent (and increasingly omniscient) mass surveillance system.  The background readings for the mtg and my introduction tried to make the case that Google/Alphabet, Facebook/Meta, Apple, and a handful of other Big Tech firms have created something brand new: A system that is moving towards virtually constant on-line and off-line surveillance of our daily lives.  This is an unprecedented new kind of power, highly concentrated.   Especially after it is fully married to AI, surveillance capitalism potentially will be owners and the sole arbiter of a huge capability to monitor us and predict and probably manipulate our behavior for their private profit.

At the meeting, I think a lot of people thought we were talking about targeted advertising, or something benign.  Maybe this thesis is overwrought – or at least premature.  And yes, we get many benefits from a wired world.

Fine.  Now, try imagining that this hyper-concentrated private surveillance apparatus gets merged with government’s law enforcement and national security powers.  Worried now?  You should be, from what I have read.

The key to understanding why is to forget the debates about govt spying that sprung up right after 9/11.  Secret warrants, NSA hoovering up our meta-data, and so forth still matter because they still abuse their power.  (See article below on this.)  But increasingly it is OBE, replaced by governments that just plug into or purchase the new tools for total surveillance that we have let the private sector create completely in secret already and outside of constraint by law or oversight or regulation. 

Governments, including ours, are already doing it.  China’s surveillance state is the most advanced and totalitarian-like, by all accounts.  But it is exporting the tools of mass surveillance control to other countries.  “Digital authoritarianism” is being built in Vietnam, Iran, and many other nations.   As discussed below, there also is a huge private global spyware sector, and some of its leading firms have few scruples about who they sell to.

Governments in the USA use some of these tools.  Which ones and how extensively we do not fully know.  Law enforcement and immigration enforcement agencies appear to be in the lead.  More is coming.  Every week it seems new revelations about U.S. govt surveillance abuses come out, even if no one seems to care.

Let’s do our part to change that.  On Monday I will give some short opening remarks to try to convey the immense scope and scale of what governments and corporations are doing in the mass surveillance realm, often in concert.  Then we can discuss it. 

I listed a bunch of optional readings below, just to be thorough.  But the first two will suffice to get you a bit up to speed.  I also attached a “Guide to protecting yourself” for your personal protection against this stuff.  It is from a highly reputable source.

A FEW MORE OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

Recommended key articles –

USA –

Globally –

Different POVs and practical advice –

NEXT WEEK (3/20/23):  Who really benefits from U.S. foreign aid?

Monday’s Mtg (3/6/23): Is NATO at war with Russia now over Ukraine?

Civilized Conversation discussed the Russo-Ukrainian war in March 2022, one month after it started.  We focused mainly on the war’s origins, including how rapidly Ukraine would be crushed and who was to blame (Vladimir Putin alone, Ukraine somehow, NATO expansion, USA).  A year later, extensive news media coverage of the history of Putin’s naked imperial ambitions all over the former USSR, not to mention the war crimes and atrocities committed by his troops in Ukraine, leave many with little interest in that debate.

We have a new and more relevant to the moment set of questions to ponder on Monday. They are even harder ones than last time.  Ukrainians have amazed the world in the last year with their courage and military capability in the face of a brutal onslaught.  The once-feared Russian military occupies only about one-sixth of its neighbor, and that has cost Putin close to 150,000 casualties, his reputation as much more than a thug, and Russian civilians more and more, as multilateral sanctions bite harder at Russia’s economy more than most outsiders realize.  NATO is in deeper now, too, hence our topic wording.

And yet, both NATO and Russia have exercised restraint against each other.  NATO aid to Ukraine has come from individual member states, NOT from the alliance formally, although NATO leaders are openly coordinating who gives what.  Putin blusters and threatens to escalate against NATO and the USA.  Yet unless I am missing something big, he hasn’t done so yet.

The plain truth is that most wars eventually end in a negotiated settlement, albeit sometimes ones that are morally hard to swallow.  This meeting is to discuss whether/how this terrible war might come to an end in 2023, and what either peace or continued stalemate might mean for the world and the NATO alliance.  To do so intelligently, we will need to make some educated guesses about the future, such as

  1. The Fighting:  Can each side keep fighting at this pace for another year? Militarily versus politically.
  2. The Goals:  Will Russia/Ukraine keep holding out for total victory, or settle for something less?
  3. The Allies:  Will outside parties – NATO members, Iran, China, others – keep pouring in weapons and other assistance as long as their side asks for it?  AND will they pressure either side (okay – Ukraine) to negotiate and make concessions?
  4. The unknowns:  War is as unpredictable as it is cruel.  So are enemies.  Allies are fickle and have their own interests to protect.  Luck and accidents happen.  What kinds of things could go wrong or right in this tragedy that would affect the outcome?

Most news media coverage is too shallow to help us much, IMO.   Below are a few articles that shed some light on our questions.  Don’t look at me for expertise on this one.  Still, I will open our mtg with quick summaries of –

  1. What big factors open sources say might swing the war one way or the other in 2023, focusing on NATO’s role.
  2. Major peace proposals made so far (none of which show much promise yet).

OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READINGS –

NEXT WEEK (March 13):  The Surveillance Century, Part II – Governments.